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EU Enlargement: Perspectives for agriculture and rural areas in major accession countries

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EU Enlargement: Perspectives for agriculture and rural areas in major accession countries

Kai Bauer (Broschiert, Englisch)

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The accession of eight Central and Eastern European Countries as well as Cyprus and Malta to the European Union (EU) on 1 May 2004 was an historic milestone for European (re-) integration. Due to the importance of agriculture for the new Member States and of agricultural policy for the EU budget, the conditions of accession were subject to intense negotiations until literally the very last minute. This study is based on the final negotiation decisions taken at the European Council summit in Copenhagen 2002 and concentrates on the three largest new Member States in terms of gross domestic product and population: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. One of the most striking outcomes of the negotiations is the allocation of funds between market and price policy (first pillar) and rural development policy (second pillar) of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Each CAP component will be equipped with approximately half of the agricultural budget for new Member States. Even after a decade of evolution towards a greater significance of the second pillar, the rural development policy in the EU-15 makes up no more than 10% of the CAP budget. For the new Member States, rural development objectives and measures will thus play a major role over the next decade and might well lead the way for a further expanded role of the second pillar within the EU-25. At the same time, market and price policy continues to play an important role due to the significance of the agricultural sector in rural areas of the new Member States. This study thus assesses the effects of the CAP on agriculture and rural areas in the new Member States by quantifying the impact of the market and price policies and analysing its role in the broader context of an integrated agricultural and rural development policy. The quantitative analysis of the sectoral impacts is based on an elasticity-driven comparative-static partial equilibrium model (i-sim) for the three focus countries. The model uses a consistent data base and estimates the effects of policy changes on agricultural supply, demand, external trade and income. Three scenarios are defined based on the policy options available under the Copenhagen Agreement. Due to regional differences in production structure and yields, however, the impact of enlargement will vary widely between different regions of large countries. As the second pillar of CAP is aimed also at reducing regional differences, the sectoral i-sim results are broken down to the regional level using a simplified methodology in order to get a preliminary assessment of the regional impacts of EU enlargement. Finally, the interdependencies between the first and second pillars of the CAP are highlighted using a qualitative tool; the rural policy matrix. The model results indicate that there will be significant increases in agricultural incomes after accession in the three focus countries due to positive price developments and direct payments. However, there will also be some “loser activities”, notably in Poland where the cereal price level is close to that of the EU-15 and in Hungary where the national support for pork production will be abolished. The results also point to possible market imbalances for products where there are significant supply increases and reductions in domestic demand (e.g. rye production in Poland). Due to the significant income increases, the “phasing-in” of direct payments appears adequate to avoid income discrepancies between the farming and non-farming population. The results for decoupled simplified payments illustrate that this instrument has positive effects on the market balance while supporting farmers’ income. The regional analysis highlights the influence of the initial production structure and yield levels on the regional distribution of CAP effects. Finally, the application of the rural policy matrix indicates that the influence of market and price policy on farming and investment decisions should be further reduced in order to achieve optimal policy impact with the rural development policies of the CAP. Weniger zeigen

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Produktinformationen

Technische Daten

Erscheinungsdatum

16.03.2005

Sprache

Englisch

EAN

9783898259156

Herausgeber

Winter Industries

Serien- oder Bandtitel

Dissertation Premium

Sonderedition

Nein

Autor

Kai Bauer

Seitenanzahl

164

Auflage

Einbandart

Broschiert

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Informationen nach EU Data Act

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