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Modelling future residential development

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Modelling future residential development

Jana Hoymann (Broschiert, Englisch)

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Beschreibung

The present thesis analyses the future development of built-up areas in the Elbe River Basin. The development of built-up areas is of importance, because an enormous demographic change is observed in the study area. After the collapse of the socialist system, a population decline and deindustrialization were observed. Although two classic driving forces are missing, massive suburbanisation processes set in. This diverging development of socioeconomic parameters and built-up area causes unsustainable developments for the social, economic and ecologic dimensions of sustainable development. The question is, how does this development continue in the future and is it possible to achieve the sustainability objectives of the German sustainability strategy? The analysis of the future development of built-up areas is undertaken by the application of a scenario analysis. The scenarios, which are described by narrative storylines, are quantified by mathematical models. The land use change model Land Use Scanner is applied for the simulation of the scenarios. The Land Use Scanner model needs two different inputs to allocate future demand for built-up areas spatially explicit on grid-cells. First, suitability maps need to be calculated, which indicate locations that are suitable or unsuitable for certain land use types. Second, the demand for built-up areas needs to be provided by exogenous sectoral models. Since there are still no generally valid methodologies to provide this data input into land use change models, a critical analysis of existing approaches is conducted in four seperate research papers. The first paper uses an approach to empirically determine suitability maps for the application within a land use change model. Binomial logistic regression analysis is applied in an analysis of the location characteristics influencing residential land use change. Estimation results are adapted and used as weights in the calculation of suitability maps, which consist of the location characteristics of residential land use change. Including policy maps in suitability calculations allows important spatial restrictions to be accounted for and enables the impact of spatial planning on the allocation of residential developments to be analysed. The suitability maps are further applied to the Land Use Scanner model to simulate spatially explicit residential land use developments in the Elbe River Basin. The second paper attempts to build a regression model that is able to project the demand for built-up areas although population declines. The paper compares a set of regression models that estimates the built-up area. The applicability of single explanatory variables is discussed. The models are compared to each other for their statistical properties. Finally, the most appropriate model is used to project built-up area for the year 2020. Estimating the built-up area results in good statistical fit but underestimates the observed changes. Estimating the change between two time steps results in less statistical fit but projects the observed changes well. Accurate projections of future developments of built-up areas are crucial for sustainable development and protecting the natural environment. The third paper reviews approaches to project developments of built-up area. A selection of these approaches is applied to Germany and the Czech Republic, and the results are quantitatively compared. The advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches are analysed and discussed. The results reveal a high uncertainty when projecting past changes with the selected approaches. The last paper integrates the findings of the previous and implements the derived suitability maps and the demand for residential areas into the land use change model. The challenge of this study was to develop scenarios that consider the two processes, accelerated urban sprawl in growth centres while peripheral regions are depopulating. The question is whether the demand for built-up areas can be reduced to achieve the objective of the German sustainability strategy. Regionalised socioeconomic scenarios of the IPCC-SRES as well as households and housing forecasts are applied to calculate residential land demand for regions. The Land Use Scanner is then used to allocate the demand on grid-cells within the spatial planning units. The analysed methodologies and achieved results may serve as basis for spatial planning authorities to establish discussions about future land use developments. The applied approaches were used to gain a deeper understanding about land use dynamics and their effects on the environment. The impact of innovative spatial planning instruments can be assessed and discussed with the applied land use change model for the progress towards sustainable development. Weniger zeigen

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Produktinformationen

Technische Daten

Erscheinungsdatum

13.01.2011

Sprache

Englisch

EAN

9783798322769

Herausgeber

Universitätsverlag der TU Berlin

Sonderedition

Nein

Autor

Jana Hoymann

Seitenanzahl

174

Einbandart

Broschiert

Buch Untertitel

A scenario analysis for the Elbe River Basin

Schlagwörter

Verkehrsfläche, Ökonomische Bewertung, Globaler Wandel, Siedlungsgang, Elbe, Elbe-Gebiet, Landnutzung, Modellierung, Nachhaltige Entwicklung

Thema-Inhalt

RP - Raumplanung KCVS - Stadtökonomie AMVD - Stadtplanung und Architektur KCVG - Umweltökonomie RNK - Umweltschutz

Höhe

210 mm

Breite

14.8 cm

Warnhinweise und Sicherheitsinformationen

Informationen nach EU Data Act

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